08

Global Time Invariance — A Scientific Law

CDR parameters are stable across 22 years (1995–2016) and across all countries — qualifying CDR as a scientific law

Learning Objectives

  • Explain what "global time invariance" means and why it is the key criterion distinguishing a scientific law from an empirical model
  • Interpret the CDR parameters-over-time plot showing stability of βC, βD, βR, βCDR, βN from 1995–2016
  • Connect global invariance to the claim that capital-to-GDP conversion follows physical and chemical laws of nature
CDR Scientific Law Statement
"The CDR model is global time invariant. After adjusting for factors of production, capital to GDPppp conversion is the same everywhere in the world, determined by the physical and chemical laws of nature. The CDR model is the first and only scientific economic growth model." — P1, Abstract

What Was Tested

The 2014 CDR model was re-estimated using rolling windows: 2016 only, 2015–2016, 2014–2016, 2013–2016, …, 1995–2016. For all 22 years, βD, βR, βN are approximately constant. βC and βCDR are approximately constant for the most recent 9 years; for earlier years when capitalization data were unavailable, they were held constant — yet the model converges forward.

Why This Qualifies as Law

Global invariance means the CDR model can be used as a forecasting model: G for any country in any year can be estimated when C, D, R, and the global min/max G are known. The CDR law is analogous to physical laws: "technology functions according to fixed laws of science — in that sense, the world is flat and parametrically globally invariant." (Kuhn, 2012)

CDR Parameters Over Time, 1995–2016 illustrative

This chart draws flat reference lines at the published coefficient values to illustrate the claim of stability across the 22-year panel. It is not plotted from the exact year-by-year estimates — those are in P2 Appendix E Fig. 6 and P4 §4 Table 1 (year panel 2008–2014).
Sources
P1 · Abstract ("global time invariant"), §1 Introduction, p. 1 P2 · Appendix E: The Global Time Invariant CDR model (Fig.6 parameters over time), §4 Discussion (time invariance), pp. 19, 9 P4 · §4 Global Time Invariant CDR model (Table 1: year panel 2008–2014), §1 Introduction (forecasting model), pp. 6–8